UK Social Care Funding Gap: 2026 Data

Adult social care in England is funded from three sources that are all under strain at once: council budgets that are overspending, an NHS that is shifting cost across the boundary, and individuals who pay their own way once their assets pass a threshold that has not moved since 2010.

This briefing sets out the size of the gap between what adult social care costs and what is funded, using primary government statistics and independent institutional analysis. Every figure carries its date, its geography and a source link. Figures describe England unless stated, are current as at July 2026, and are subject to change. Where a number is a projection or a derived estimate rather than an official statistic, it is labelled as such.

Executive summary

Local authority net current expenditure on adult social care in England reached £24.7 billion in 2024-25, an 8% rise on £23.0 billion in 2023-24 (gov.uk, Adult social care finance report, England: 2024 to 2025).
The Health Foundation projects that an additional £8.3 billion a year will be needed by 2032/33 for adult social care in England to keep pace with demand, an average 3.4% real-terms rise a year from 2021/22 (The Health Foundation, 2023). This is a modelled projection.
Councils overspent their adult social care budgets by £715 million in 2025/26, the fourth consecutive year of rising care costs, with more than 400,000 people waiting for an assessment, care or a review (ADASS Spring Survey 2026, published 14 July 2026).
An estimated 2 million people aged 65 and over in England had some unmet need for social care in 2024 (Age UK, State of Health and Care of Older People 2024).
The number of people aged 85 and over in the UK is projected to nearly double, from 1.7 million in mid-2020 to 3.1 million by mid-2045 (ONS, 2020-based interim national population projections). This is a projection.
The £86,000 lifetime cap on personal care costs, due to start in October 2025, was cancelled on 29 July 2024, and long-term reform was passed to the Casey Commission, whose first phase is due to report in 2026 (House of Commons Library, cap on care costs).
The capital thresholds in the England means test, £23,250 at the upper limit and £14,250 at the lower, have been frozen since April 2010 (gov.uk, help with care home fees).
The Competition and Markets Authority found that self-funding care home residents paid on average 41% more than local-authority-funded residents for equivalent care (CMA, Care homes market study final report, 2017). This finding is dated 2017.

Key findings

Each finding below is a single, sourced statement. Read together they describe a system where funded provision is falling behind both cost and need.

Local authority gross current expenditure on adult social care in England was £29.4 billion in 2024-25, £2.3 billion (9%) higher than in 2023-24. Source: gov.uk, Adult social care finance report, England: 2024 to 2025. England.
Long-term care accounted for 80%, or £23.6 billion, of gross current expenditure in 2024-25, split almost evenly between older people aged 65 and over (£12.0 billion) and working-age adults aged 18 to 64 (£11.5 billion). Source: gov.uk, Adult social care finance report, England: 2024 to 2025. England.
Client contributions toward the cost of their own care reached £4.676 billion in 2024-25, a 14% rise on the previous year. Source: gov.uk, Adult social care finance report, England: 2024 to 2025. England.
Local authorities received 2.02 million requests for support from people new to social care in 2024-25, of which 1.30 million came from people aged 65 and over. Source: gov.uk / NHS England, Adult social care activity report, England: 2024 to 2025. England.
The Health Foundation estimates £0.6 billion of additional funding was needed by 2024/25 and £8.3 billion by 2032/33 to meet growing demand in England. Source: The Health Foundation, REAL Centre, 2023. England. Modelled projection.
Councils overspent adult social care budgets by £715 million in 2025/26 according to directors of adult social services, the fourth consecutive year that care costs have risen. Source: ADASS Spring Survey 2026, published 14 July 2026. England. Self-reported survey of directors.
More than 400,000 people in England were waiting for an adult social care assessment, the start of care or a support package, or a review, at the time of the 2026 ADASS survey. Source: ADASS Spring Survey 2026, published 14 July 2026. England.
An estimated 2 million people aged 65 and over in England had some unmet need for social care in 2024, out of an older population of roughly 11 million. Source: Age UK, State of Health and Care of Older People 2024, published September 2024. England. Charity analysis of official data.
The number of older people receiving local authority long-term care fell to 542,420 in 2022/23 from 565,240 in 2017/18, while the population aged over 75 rose by 18% since 2017. Source: Age UK, State of Health and Care of Older People 2024. England.
The adult social care vacancy rate in England fell to 6.2% in the year to March 2026, its lowest since 2015/16, equal to around 96,000 vacant posts on any given day, still roughly three times the wider economy. Source: Skills for Care, The size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce in England 2026, published June 2026. England.
Skills for Care projects the sector will need a further 410,000 posts by 2040 to keep pace with the ageing population. Source: Skills for Care, 2026. England. Projection.
The number of people aged 85 and over in the UK is projected to rise from 1.7 million in mid-2020 to 3.1 million by mid-2045, from 2.5% to 4.3% of the population. Source: ONS, 2020-based interim national population projections, published January 2022. UK. Projection.
The old-age dependency ratio in the UK is projected to rise from 280 to 341 people of state pension age per 1,000 working-age people between mid-2020 and mid-2045. Source: ONS, 2020-based interim national population projections. UK. Projection.
The Nuffield Trust estimated that the April 2025 rise in employer National Insurance contributions and the 6.7% increase in the National Living Wage would add about £2.8 billion to the costs of independent adult social care providers in 2025/26 (about £940 million from NICs and £1.85 billion from the National Living Wage rise). Source: Nuffield Trust, 2025. England. Independent think tank estimate.
The Competition and Markets Authority found self-funders paid on average 41% more than councils for equivalent care home places. Source: CMA, Care homes market study final report, 30 November 2017. UK. Dated finding.

The public bill

What councils spend, and why it keeps rising

Public spending on adult social care in England is large and growing, but it is growing to chase cost rather than to widen access. Net current expenditure rose 8% in a single year, faster than general inflation, and yet directors still overspent their budgets. The rise reflects higher provider fees, the National Living Wage and demand, not a broadening of who qualifies for state-funded care.

Measure (England)	2023-24	2024-25	Change
Net current expenditure	£23.0bn	£24.7bn	+8%
Gross current expenditure	£27.1bn	£29.4bn	+9%
Long-term care (share of gross)	n/a	£23.6bn (80%)	n/a
Older people, long-term care	n/a	£12.0bn	n/a
Working-age adults, long-term care	n/a	£11.5bn	n/a
Client contributions	n/a	£4.676bn	+14%

Source: gov.uk, Adult social care finance report, England: 2024 to 2025. Figures are cash terms and not adjusted for inflation. Gross 2023-24 derived from the reported £2.3bn increase to £29.4bn.

Almost half of long-term care spending goes to working-age adults, a point often missed in coverage that frames social care as an older-person issue. Any account of the funding gap has to hold both groups in view.

Limitation. Net current expenditure and the budget figures used in the ADASS survey are measured on different bases, so the two should not be subtracted from one another to produce a single gap number. Cash-terms year-on-year changes overstate real growth because they include inflation.

The gap between funding and demand

Two independent measures point the same way: what is funded is falling short of what demand requires. One is a forward projection of the funding needed to stand still; the other is the overspend councils are already running.

Estimate	Figure	Year	Source	Tier
Additional funding to meet demand	£8.3bn a year	by 2032/33	Health Foundation, REAL Centre	Tier 1
Additional funding to meet demand	£0.6bn a year	by 2024/25	Health Foundation, REAL Centre	Tier 1
Council budget overspend	£715m	2025/26	ADASS Spring Survey 2026	Tier 2
Added provider cost from NICs + NLW	£2.8bn	2025/26	Nuffield Trust	Tier 2

Sources: Health Foundation (2023); ADASS Spring Survey 2026; Nuffield Trust (2025). England.

The Health Foundation figure is the cost of meeting rising demand and making some targeted improvements, built up from the 2021/22 spending base and rising an average 3.4% a year in real terms. It is a projection, and it depends on assumptions about pay, demography and the level of unmet need treated as acceptable. The ADASS overspend is a different kind of evidence: not a forecast but a record of budgets already breached, self-reported by the directors who set them.

Flag. The £8.3bn projection is modelled and was published in 2023 against a 2021/22 base, so it predates the most recent pay and National Insurance changes. Treat it as an order-of-magnitude estimate of the demand gap, not a precise current-year number.

Unmet need: the gap you do not see in the accounts

A funding gap does not always show up as an overspend. It can show up as care that is never commissioned. Because councils ration access through eligibility rules and a means test, rising need can be met with flat or falling provision, and the shortfall is carried by individuals and unpaid carers rather than by the public accounts.

Indicator (England)	Figure	Period
Older people with some unmet care need	2 million	2024
Older people receiving LA long-term care	542,420	2022/23
The same, five years earlier	565,240	2017/18
Growth in the over-75 population since 2017	+18%	to 2024
People waiting for assessment, care or review	400,000+	2026

Sources: Age UK, State of Health and Care of Older People 2024; ADASS Spring Survey 2026. England.

Provision fell while the older population grew. That divergence is the clearest single sign that the gap is being closed by rationing access rather than by matching funding to need.

Limitation. Age UK's 2 million figure is a charity's modelled estimate drawn from survey and administrative data, not an official statistic, and definitions of "unmet need" vary between studies. The ADASS waiting figure is self-reported and covers several different waits, so it should not be read as a single clinical waiting list.

The private bill

Who pays when the state does not

England has no free personal care and no cap on lifetime care costs. Whether the state helps with residential care turns on a means test whose capital thresholds have not changed for over a decade, so more estates cross them each year as asset values rise. Above the upper threshold, a person meets the full cost of their care.

Rule (England)	Level	Status
Upper capital limit (full self-funding above)	£23,250	Frozen since April 2010
Lower capital limit (below, no capital charge)	£14,250	Frozen since April 2010
Lifetime cap on personal care costs	£86,000	Cancelled 29 July 2024
Long-term reform	Casey Commission	Phase 1 due 2026, Phase 2 by 2028

Sources: gov.uk, help with care home fees; House of Commons Library, introducing a cap on care costs. England.

Self-funders also tend to pay more than councils for the same place. The Competition and Markets Authority found a 41% average gap (CMA, 2017, UK), a cross-subsidy that props up homes charging councils below cost. Care fees themselves are substantial, though the current weekly figures below come from a market aggregator rather than an official statistical source and should be read as indicative.

Care type (self-funder, England)	Approx. weekly cost	Approx. annual cost
Residential care	£1,298	£67,496
Nursing care	£1,535	£79,820

Source: carehome.co.uk, 2025/26. Tier 3 market aggregator, self-reported home fees, not an official statistic. Regional variation is wide.

For families, the practical consequence is that the value of a home and other savings can be exposed to care costs that have no ceiling. General planning can consider how to limit or mitigate the impact of care fees, but it cannot remove a genuine liability, and deliberately depriving yourself of assets to avoid charges can be reversed by a council. This is set out in more detail in our guide to care home fees.

The demographic pressure behind the forecast

The demand projections rest on a simple demographic fact: the oldest age groups, which use the most care, are growing fastest. The projections below are official but are, by nature, uncertain, and newer rounds revise the numbers.

Measure (UK)	mid-2020	mid-2045
People aged 85 and over	1.7 million	3.1 million
Share of population aged 85+	2.5%	4.3%
Old-age dependency ratio (per 1,000)	280	341

Source: ONS, 2020-based interim national population projections, published January 2022. UK. Projection.

Flag. These are the 2020-based interim projections. ONS has since published more recent rounds, which revise the numbers, so the figures here should be read as a well-established direction of travel rather than a precise count. The old-age dependency ratio matters because a smaller working-age population must fund care for a larger retired one.

Why demography drives the gap. The workforce that delivers care is not keeping pace. Skills for Care records a vacancy rate of 6.2% in the year to March 2026, around 96,000 posts a day, and projects the sector will need 410,000 more posts by 2040 to meet demand (Skills for Care, 2026). A funding gap and a workforce gap reinforce one another.

1. The demand gap per older person Estimate

Expressing the projected demand gap as a per-person figure gives a sense of scale. Dividing the Health Foundation's projected £8.3 billion additional annual need by 2032/33 by the roughly 11 million people aged 65 and over in England gives about £750 per older person per year.

Formula. £8,300,000,000 ÷ 11,000,000 people aged 65+ ≈ £755 per person per year.

Inputs: Health Foundation demand projection, 2023; older population from Age UK, 2024. Limitations: the £8.3bn is a modelled projection to 2032/33 while the population base is current, so this mixes time points; adult social care also serves working-age adults, who are excluded from the denominator; the result is illustrative only.

2. Provision-per-older-person divergence Estimate

Between 2017/18 and 2022/23 the number of older people receiving council long-term care fell about 4%, from 565,240 to 542,420, while the over-75 population rose about 18%. Holding those together implies that funded care per older person fell by roughly a fifth over that period.

Formula. (542,420 ÷ 565,240) ÷ 1.18 − 1 ≈ −19%, the change in recipients per head of the growing older population.

Inputs: recipient counts and the 18% population growth, both from Age UK, 2024. Limitations: the recipient counts and the population growth use slightly different reference years and age bands, so the ratio is approximate; it measures publicly funded provision only and excludes privately arranged care; it does not adjust for changes in need intensity per person.

3. The self-funder premium in current money Estimate

Applying the CMA's 41% average premium to a current self-funder residential rate implies the council-funded rate for an equivalent place, and the annual gap between them. Using an indicative self-funder rate of £1,298 a week gives an implied council rate near £921 and a premium of roughly £377 a week, about £19,600 a year.

Formula. £1,298 ÷ 1.41 ≈ £921 implied council rate; £1,298 − £921 ≈ £377 a week ≈ £19,600 a year.

Inputs: 41% premium from CMA, 2017; self-funder weekly rate from carehome.co.uk, 2025/26 (Tier 3). Limitations: the CMA premium is a 2017 UK-wide average and individual premiums range from nil to more than double; the cost base is a market aggregator, not an official statistic; the two inputs are from different years, so the pound figures are indicative only.

Recommended charts

Chart specifications for editors and data teams. Each is described, not embedded.

The rationing chart. Two indexed lines, 2017/18 = 100, one for the over-75 population and one for older people receiving council long-term care, England. Data: Age UK, State of Health and Care 2024. Insight: provision falls as the older population rises. Citation-worthy because it visualises unmet need as a single divergence.
The frozen threshold. A flat line at £23,250 from 2010 to 2026 against a rising line of average house prices or CPI. Data: gov.uk means-test limits; ONS UK House Price Index or CPI. Insight: the means test catches more estates each year without any policy change.
The demand gap staircase. A bar chart of additional annual funding needed, £0.6bn by 2024/25 rising to £8.3bn by 2032/33, England. Data: Health Foundation, 2023. Insight: the projected shortfall compounds over the decade.
Who funds care. A stacked bar of 2024-25 gross expenditure by income source, council funding, NHS income and client contributions, England. Data: gov.uk finance report 2024-25. Insight: the share carried directly by individuals is large and rising fastest.
The oldest-old curve. A line of the 85-and-over population, 1.7 million in 2020 to 3.1 million in 2045, UK. Data: ONS 2020-based interim projections. Insight: the group that uses the most care grows fastest.

Methodology

Source selection. Preference was given to primary official statistics from gov.uk, NHS England and the Office for National Statistics, then to institutional analysis from the Health Foundation, the Nuffield Trust and the House of Commons Library, then to sector bodies such as ADASS and Skills for Care and, last, to market aggregators used only where an official figure was unavailable and clearly labelled.

Inclusion and exclusion. A figure was included only where its source, year and geography could be identified and the source directly supported the claim. Numbers that could not be traced to a named source were excluded. Projections and modelled estimates were retained but labelled as such and never presented as official statistics.

Handling conflicts. Where figures differed, the more recent primary source was preferred and the difference noted. Net current expenditure and the budget figures in the ADASS survey are on different bases and were not combined into a single gap number. Cash-terms figures were flagged as not inflation-adjusted.

Derived figures. The three estimates in the original analysis section combine published datasets. Each states its formula, its inputs with links, and its limitations, and each is labelled an estimate rather than an official statistic.

Currency. Content is current as at July 2026 and is subject to change. Reliefs, thresholds and projections are revised by government and by the source bodies over time.

Source quality ranking

Source	What it provided	Tier
gov.uk / DHSC, Adult social care finance report, England 2024-25	Council spending, client group split, client contributions	Tier 1
gov.uk / NHS England, Adult social care activity report 2024-25	Requests for support	Tier 1
Office for National Statistics, national population projections	85+ population, dependency ratio	Tier 1
The Health Foundation, REAL Centre	Demand-gap projection to 2032/33	Tier 1
House of Commons Library	Cap on care costs, policy timeline	Tier 1
Competition and Markets Authority	Self-funder premium (2017)	Tier 1
ADASS Spring Survey 2026	Overspend, waiting numbers	Tier 2
Skills for Care, size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce in England 2026	Vacancy rate, workforce projection	Tier 2
Nuffield Trust	Provider cost of NICs and NLW	Tier 2
Age UK	Unmet need estimate, provision trend	Tier 2
carehome.co.uk	Indicative self-funder weekly fees	Tier 3

Tier 1: primary government, official statistics, academic and statutory bodies. Tier 2: credible institutional and sector analysis using primary data. Tier 3: market aggregators and commentary, used only where labelled and where no official figure exists.

For journalists

Most quotable statistics

Council net spending on adult social care in England hit £24.7 billion in 2024-25, up 8% in a year. Source: gov.uk finance report 2024-25.
An extra £8.3 billion a year is projected to be needed by 2032/33 to meet demand in England. Source: Health Foundation, 2023. Projection.
Councils overspent adult social care budgets by £715 million in 2025/26, the fourth consecutive year of rising care costs. Source: ADASS Spring Survey 2026.
Two million older people in England had some unmet care need in 2024. Source: Age UK, 2024.
The £23,250 means-test threshold has been frozen since April 2010. Source: gov.uk.
The 85-and-over UK population is projected to nearly double to 3.1 million by 2045. Source: ONS, 2020-based interim projections.
Self-funders paid on average 41% more than councils for equivalent care. Source: CMA, 2017.

Data limitations

The £8.3bn demand gap is a 2023 projection against a 2021/22 base and predates recent pay and National Insurance changes.
ADASS figures are self-reported by directors and are not audited official statistics.
Age UK's unmet-need estimate is a charity model, and definitions of unmet need vary between studies.
Care fee figures come from a market aggregator, not an official source, and regional variation is wide.
Spending figures are cash terms unless stated and are not inflation-adjusted.
Population projections are the 2020-based interim round; later rounds revise the numbers.

Recommended dataset fields

For a downloadable companion dataset: local authority name; region; financial year; net current expenditure (£); gross current expenditure (£); spend on older people (£); spend on working-age adults (£); client contributions (£); requests for support (count); people receiving long-term care (count); people waiting (count); average self-funder residential fee (£/week); average council-funded fee (£/week); source; source tier; last updated.

Press summary

Adult social care in England is running a widening gap between cost, funding and need. Councils spent £24.7 billion on adult social care in 2024-25, up 8% in a year, yet still overspent their budgets by £715 million in 2025/26, according to directors of adult social services. The Health Foundation projects an extra £8.3 billion a year will be needed by 2032/33 simply to keep pace with demand. The gap is not only fiscal: an estimated 2 million older people had unmet care needs in 2024, and the number receiving council care fell even as the over-75 population rose 18% since 2017. With the £86,000 cap on care costs cancelled and means-test thresholds frozen since 2010, more of the cost falls on individuals, whose homes and savings have no statutory cap. Long-term reform now rests with the Casey Commission, due to report from 2026.

Five suggested headlines

Councils spent £24.7bn on care in 2024-25, and still overshot by £715m
The £8.3bn question: what it costs to keep England's care system standing still
Two million older people, one shrinking safety net
Frozen since 2010: the £23,250 line that decides who pays for care
Care provision fell as the over-75 population rose 18 percent

Frequently asked questions

How big is the social care funding gap in England?

The Health Foundation projects that adult social care in England will need an additional £8.3 billion a year by 2032/33 to keep pace with demand and make some targeted improvements, an average real-terms rise of 3.4% a year from 2021/22 (Health Foundation, 2023). This is a modelled projection, not an official statistic, and it predates the most recent pay and National Insurance changes.

How much do councils spend on adult social care?

Local authority net current expenditure on adult social care in England was £24.7 billion in 2024-25, an 8% rise on £23.0 billion the year before, while gross current expenditure reached £29.4 billion (gov.uk, Adult social care finance report 2024-25). Long-term care made up 80% of gross spending, split almost evenly between older people and working-age adults.

Are councils overspending on social care?

Yes. Directors of adult social services reported that councils overspent their adult social care budgets by £715 million in 2025/26, the fourth consecutive year that care costs have risen (ADASS Spring Survey 2026, published July 2026). These figures are self-reported by directors rather than audited official statistics, but they are widely cited as a measure of budget pressure.

How many people have unmet care needs?

Age UK estimated that 2 million people aged 65 and over in England had some unmet need for social care in 2024, out of an older population of about 11 million (Age UK, State of Health and Care of Older People 2024). This is a charity's modelled estimate, and definitions of unmet need vary between studies, so it should be read as indicative of scale rather than a precise count.

What is the cap on care costs, and does it still apply?

The £86,000 lifetime cap on personal care costs in England, legislated to start in October 2025, was cancelled by the government on 29 July 2024 (House of Commons Library). No cap currently applies, so there is no statutory ceiling on what an individual may spend on their personal care over a lifetime. Long-term reform now rests with the Casey Commission, due to report from 2026.

When does the state pay for care in England?

In England, help with residential care is means-tested, and a person with capital above £23,250 generally pays the full cost of their care, while below £14,250 capital is not counted (gov.uk). Both thresholds have been frozen since April 2010, so as asset values rise more people cross them and become responsible for their own fees.

Why do self-funders pay more than councils?

The Competition and Markets Authority found that self-funders paid on average 41% more than local-authority-funded residents for equivalent care (CMA, Care homes market study, 2017). Councils were paying fee rates below the cost of provision, so homes raised prices for self-funders to make up the shortfall. The finding is dated 2017.

How much does a care home cost in England?

Indicative 2025/26 figures put the average self-funder cost of residential care at about £1,298 a week and nursing care at about £1,535 a week, roughly £67,000 and £79,000 a year (carehome.co.uk). These come from a market aggregator rather than an official statistical source, and costs vary widely by region and by home, so they should be treated as indicative.

How is the ageing population affecting care?

The number of people aged 85 and over in the UK is projected to nearly double, from 1.7 million in mid-2020 to 3.1 million by mid-2045 (ONS, 2020-based interim projections). Because the oldest age groups use the most care, this drives the demand projections, while Skills for Care projects the sector will need 410,000 more posts by 2040 to keep pace.

Can planning reduce the impact of care fees on a home?

Care fees in England have no statutory ceiling, and general planning cannot remove a genuine liability. Deliberately giving away assets to avoid charges can be treated as deprivation of assets and reversed by a council. General planning can consider how to limit or mitigate the impact of care fees within the rules, and this is best discussed with a suitably qualified professional who can consider individual circumstances.

About Fairchild Oldfield

The Fairchild Oldfield team brings together estate planning, tax and client care, working with families across England and Wales. This briefing reports public data and is written by the firm.

Fairchild Oldfield are estate planning specialists and will writers, not a firm of solicitors. This article is general information based on published data, not legal, tax or financial advice.

Important: This briefing is general information and data reporting only, and is not legal, tax or financial advice. Reading it does not create a professional relationship. It describes the position in England unless stated, and other UK jurisdictions differ. Figures are current as at July 2026, are drawn from the sources cited, and are subject to change. Projections and derived estimates are labelled as such and are not official statistics. Before acting, many people choose to seek advice from a suitably qualified professional who can consider their individual circumstances. Related reading: estate planning, inheritance tax, care home fees and council social care spending.

The Future Care Funding Gap in England