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Research briefing

Modelling the UK Great Wealth Transfer

How large is the wealth moving between UK generations, how fast it is flowing, how little of it is taxed, and who actually inherits. A verified, source-by-source picture.

Written by the Fairchild Oldfield team · Research briefing · Last reviewed: July 2026

£5.5tn
Estimated value of wealth passing between UK generations over roughly 30 years, in a widely cited projection modelled by the Centre for Economics and Business Research for Kings Court Trust.
Source: Cebr for Kings Court Trust, "Passing on the Pounds". UK. Modelled projection from a 2017 baseline, subject to change. See methodology.

The "great wealth transfer" describes the movement of accumulated assets, mostly property and pensions held by older generations, to their heirs and to charity over the coming decades. This briefing sets out what the public data can and cannot support about its scale in the United Kingdom, focusing on England and Wales, and models three derived measures from primary datasets. Every figure carries its source, date and geography at its point of use. Figures are current as at July 2026 and are subject to change.

Executive summary

  • An estimated £5.5 trillion is projected to pass between UK generations over roughly 30 years, in a model built by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) for Kings Court Trust (Cebr for Kings Court Trust, UK). Dated 2017 base · model
  • Total net wealth of private households in Great Britain was around £13.6 trillion in the period April 2020 to March 2022 (ONS, Household total wealth in Great Britain). Accreditation suspended
  • Annual intergenerational transfers were projected to rise from £69 billion in 2017 to £115 billion by 2027, a 66% increase, in the Cebr model (Cebr for Kings Court Trust, UK). Model
  • Inheritance tax created £6.7 billion of liabilities on 31,500 estates, being 4.62% of UK deaths, in the 2022 to 2023 tax year (HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, UK).
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts inheritance tax to raise £8.7 billion in 2025-26, about 0.3% of national income (OBR, Inheritance tax, UK).
  • Inheritances are projected to be worth about 9% of lifetime income for people born in the 1960s, rising to around 16% for those born in the 1980s (Institute for Fiscal Studies, Great Britain). Projection
  • The typical age at which today's 20 to 35 year-olds are projected to receive an inheritance is about 61 (Resolution Foundation, UK). Projection
  • From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds enter the estate for inheritance tax; HMRC estimates about 10,500 estates become newly liable and about 38,500 pay more (OBR and HMRC costings, UK).

Key findings

  1. An estimated £5.5 trillion is forecast to pass between UK generations over roughly the three decades from the late 2010s, in the Cebr model for Kings Court Trust (Cebr for Kings Court Trust, UK, published 2017 series). Model · dated base
  2. Annual intergenerational transfers in the UK were projected to rise from £69 billion in 2017 to £115 billion in 2027, and to reach £355 billion a year by 2047 (Cebr for Kings Court Trust, UK). Model
  3. The mean inheritance in the UK was modelled at £62,000 in 2017, rising to £91,000 by 2027 and £206,000 by 2047 (Cebr for Kings Court Trust, UK). Model
  4. Property was projected to account for more than 70% of transferred wealth across the Cebr forecast period (Cebr for Kings Court Trust, UK). Model
  5. Total net household wealth in Great Britain was about £13.6 trillion in April 2020 to March 2022, split roughly 40% net property, 35% private pension, 14% net financial and 10% physical (ONS, Household total wealth in Great Britain). Accreditation suspended
  6. Median household total wealth in Great Britain was £293,700 including private pensions in April 2020 to March 2022 (ONS, Household total wealth in Great Britain). Accreditation suspended
  7. The wealthiest 1% of households in Great Britain held about 10% of all household wealth, the same share as the least wealthy 50% combined, in April 2020 to March 2022 (ONS, Household total wealth in Great Britain). Accreditation suspended
  8. Inheritance tax created £6.7 billion of liabilities on 31,500 taxpaying estates in the 2022 to 2023 tax year, equal to 4.62% of UK deaths (HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics).
  9. The number of taxpaying estates fell 3.6% to 30,400 in 2023 to 2024, while total liabilities rose 5% to £7.03 billion and the average bill rose 9% to £231,000 (HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics).
  10. Combined agricultural and business property relief was worth £5.96 billion in 2023 to 2024, up 13% on the prior year (HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, UK).
  11. The OBR forecasts inheritance tax receipts of £8.7 billion in 2025-26, about 0.7% of all receipts and 0.3% of national income, equivalent to roughly £300 per household (OBR, Inheritance tax, UK).
  12. Inheritances are projected to rise from about 9% of lifetime income for those born in the 1960s to around 16% for those born in the 1980s (Institute for Fiscal Studies, Great Britain). Projection
  13. For people born in the 1960s, inheritances are projected to add about 2% to lifetime income for those with the poorest fifth of parents, against about 17% for those with the wealthiest fifth (Institute for Fiscal Studies, Great Britain). Projection
  14. The richest fifth of earners are about twice as likely to receive a significant transfer as the poorest fifth, at roughly 50% against 25% (Resolution Foundation, UK). Projection
  15. From 6 April 2027, of about 213,000 estates a year with inheritable pension wealth, HMRC estimates about 10,500 become newly liable to inheritance tax and about 38,500 pay more, with new bills averaging about £34,000 (HMRC costings, reported via OBR, UK). Forecast

The headline scale: reading the £5.5 trillion figure

The most quoted number for the UK great wealth transfer is £5.5 trillion. It is a modelled projection, not a measured statistic. It was produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research for the estate administration firm Kings Court Trust, describing wealth passing between generations over roughly three decades from a 2017 baseline. It should be read as an order-of-magnitude estimate that is now several years old, built before recent interest-rate, house-price and pension changes.

MetricFigureBasisSource (Tier)
Total transfer, ~30 years£5.5 trillionUK, modelled from 2017 baseCebr / Kings Court Trust (T2)
Annual transfer, 2017£69 billionUK, modelledCebr / Kings Court Trust (T2)
Annual transfer, 2027£115 billionUK, modelled (+66% on 2017)Cebr / Kings Court Trust (T2)
Annual transfer, 2047£355 billionUK, modelledCebr / Kings Court Trust (T2)
Property share of transfersOver 70%UK, modelledCebr / Kings Court Trust (T2)

Source: Cebr for Kings Court Trust, "Passing on the Pounds", kctrust.co.uk. United Kingdom. Modelled projection from a 2017 baseline.

What it means and its limits. The figure captures the direction and rough magnitude of the transfer, not a precise total. It is a secondary, market-commissioned model rather than an official statistic, its baseline predates the pandemic, and it treats projected house-price and pension growth as inputs, both of which have since moved. It is best cited as an estimate with its provenance attached, and cross-checked against the official wealth and tax data below.

The annual flow, and how much reaches younger people

The transfer is a flow, not a one-off event, and its timing matters as much as its size. The Cebr model puts the annual flow above £100 billion by the late 2020s. Independent work from the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation adds the parts the headline figure omits: how large inheritances loom in a lifetime, and how late they arrive.

MeasureFigureGeography, dateSource (Tier)
Inheritance as share of lifetime income, born 1960s~9%Great Britain, projectionIFS (T1)
Inheritance as share of lifetime income, born 1980s~16%Great Britain, projectionIFS (T1)
Typical age of receiving inheritance (today's 20-35s)~61UK, projectionResolution Foundation (T1)
Chance of a significant transfer, richest vs poorest fifth~50% vs ~25%UK, projectionResolution Foundation (T1)
Recipients of an inheritance per year, 2027 (modelled)~1.1 millionUK, modelledCebr / Kings Court Trust (T2)

Sources: IFS, Inheritances and inequality over the life cycle; Resolution Foundation, inheritance windfall press release; Cebr for Kings Court Trust.

What it means. The transfer is real and growing in relative importance, but it lands late and unevenly. An inheritance received in a recipient's early sixties does little for first-time home ownership or family formation in a person's twenties and thirties. The IFS and Resolution Foundation figures are projections and are not directly comparable with the Cebr flow model, which uses a different method and vintage; they are presented together to triangulate, not to reconcile to a single number.

The wealth base that feeds the transfer

The stock of wealth that will eventually pass is measured, imperfectly, by the ONS Wealth and Assets Survey. The most recent estimate puts total net household wealth in Great Britain at about £13.6 trillion. This estimate carries an important health warning: the Office for Statistics Regulation suspended the survey's accredited status, so it should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.

Component of household wealthShare of totalGeography, date
Net property wealth40%Great Britain, Apr 2020-Mar 2022
Private pension wealth35%Great Britain, Apr 2020-Mar 2022
Net financial wealth14%Great Britain, Apr 2020-Mar 2022
Physical wealth10%Great Britain, Apr 2020-Mar 2022

Source: ONS, Household total wealth in Great Britain, April 2020 to March 2022. Accreditation suspended from Round 8; treat with caution.

Why the mix matters. Property and private pensions together made up about three-quarters of household wealth, and both sit at the centre of recent tax change: property values drive residence nil-rate band exposure, and unused pensions enter the inheritance tax net from April 2027. The Cebr projection that property is more than 70% of transferred wealth is consistent with the ONS composition, which is one point where the market model and the official data agree.

Concentration. In Great Britain over April 2020 to March 2022, the wealthiest 10% of households held wealth of £1,200,500 or more, while the wealthiest 1% held about 10% of all household wealth, a share equal to that held by the least wealthy 50% combined (ONS, Household total wealth in Great Britain). Because inheritance broadly follows the existing wealth distribution, a transfer of this size tends to reproduce concentration rather than dissolve it.

How little of the transfer is taxed

Set against annual flows above £100 billion, the amount collected in inheritance tax is modest. In the 2022 to 2023 tax year, inheritance tax fell on 4.62% of UK deaths. Most estates pass entirely free of the tax, because of the nil-rate bands, the spouse and civil-partner exemption, and reliefs for business and agricultural property.

Measure2022-232023-24Source
Total IHT liabilities£6.7 billion£7.03 billion (+5%)HMRC (T1)
Taxpaying estates31,50030,400 (−3.6%)HMRC (T1)
Share of UK deaths taxed4.62%n/aHMRC (T1)
Average bill per taxpaying estate~£212,000£231,000 (+9%)HMRC (T1)
Agricultural + business property relief£5.28 billion£5.96 billion (+13%)HMRC (T1)

Source: HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics commentary. United Kingdom. The ~£212,000 average for 2022-23 is derived from the published liabilities and estate counts.

Direction of travel. Receipts are rising even as the number of taxpaying estates edges down, because larger estates carry the increase. The OBR forecasts inheritance tax to raise £8.7 billion in 2025-26 (OBR, Inheritance tax, UK), and two policy changes widen the base further: the main thresholds are frozen to the end of 2030-31 (extended by a further year at Budget 2025 on 26 November 2025, having previously been set to the end of 2029-30; gov.uk, UK), and from 6 April 2027 most unused pension funds count towards the estate.

Pensions enter the estate from April 2027. Of about 213,000 estates a year with inheritable pension wealth, HMRC estimates about 10,500 will become newly liable to inheritance tax and about 38,500 will pay more than before, with new liabilities averaging around £34,000 (HMRC costings, reported alongside OBR, Inheritance tax, UK). Forecast

The current thresholds and reliefs, England and Wales, as at July 2026, are set out below. See our Inheritance Tax explained guide for how they interact.

Allowance or rateLevel (July 2026)
Nil-rate band£325,000 (frozen to end of 2030-31)
Residence nil-rate bandUp to £175,000 (up to £500,000 with a home to direct descendants; up to £1,000,000 per couple)
Standard rate40% (36% if 10%+ of the net estate passes to charity)
Taper threshold£2,000,000
Agricultural + business property relief (from 6 April 2026)100% on the first £2,500,000 of combined qualifying assets per person, 50% above; transferable up to £5,000,000 per couple

Source: gov.uk/inheritance-tax; agricultural and business property relief allowance per gov.uk, 23 December 2025. England and Wales. Subject to change.

Who inherits, and when

The distributional evidence is the clearest part of the picture, and it complicates the idea of a broad-based windfall. The Resolution Foundation finds fewer than one in three people expect to benefit meaningfully, and receipt is skewed towards those who are already better off. The IFS reaches the same conclusion from lifetime-income modelling.

For people born in the 1960s, inheritances are projected to raise lifetime income by about 2% for those with the poorest fifth of parents, and by about 17% for those with the wealthiest fifth (Institute for Fiscal Studies, Great Britain, projection).

Among those born in the 1980s, the median lifetime inheritance is projected at around £150,000 for households in the bottom fifth by lifetime income and around £390,000 for those in the top fifth (Institute for Fiscal Studies, Great Britain, projection).

What it means. The transfer widens rather than narrows gaps between families, because larger inheritances flow disproportionately to people who already have higher incomes and wealthier parents. It also arrives late, at a typical age of about 61 for today's younger adults, which limits its effect on the life stages where money is most scarce. These are projections from survey and modelling data, and carry the usual uncertainty around future asset prices and longevity.

Original synthesis: three models from public data

The measures below are derived by Fairchild Oldfield by combining published datasets. Each is an estimate or model, clearly labelled, and each states its formula, its inputs and its limitations. None is an official statistic, and none should be cited as one.

Derived estimate · model

1. Transfer Tax-Capture Rate

An estimate of how much of the annual wealth transfer is captured by inheritance tax. Formula: total IHT liabilities in a year, divided by the modelled annual intergenerational transfer for a comparable period.

Calculation. HMRC liabilities of £6.7 billion for 2022-23, divided by a Cebr-model annual transfer interpolated at roughly £100 billion for the early 2020s, gives an estimated capture rate of about 6 to 7%. Put the other way, an estimated 93% or more of transferred wealth passes without an inheritance tax charge.

Inputs: HMRC IHT liabilities (UK, 2022-23); Cebr for Kings Court Trust annual transfer trajectory (UK).

Limitations. The two datasets are not designed to be divided: HMRC measures tax on deaths, while the Cebr flow includes lifetime gifts and uses a 2017-base model. The denominator is interpolated, so the rate is indicative only and could reasonably sit anywhere in a 5 to 9% band. It is offered to show scale, not a precise ratio.

Derived estimate · model

2. Frozen-Threshold Drag Index

An estimate of how the frozen nil-rate band pulls more estates into tax over time. Logic: the nil-rate band has been fixed at £325,000 since 6 April 2009 and is frozen to the end of 2030-31 (extended a year at Budget 2025 from the previous end-of-2029-30 position; gov.uk), while asset values and the taxed share of deaths rise.

Calculation. The share of UK deaths taxed rose to 4.62% in 2022-23 (HMRC). Widely reported OBR-based projections put it near 10% by the end of the decade, once frozen thresholds and pensions-in-scope are included. That implies an estimated doubling of the taxed-death share across the decade, with the nil-rate band unchanged in cash terms for more than 20 years by 2030-31.

Inputs: HMRC IHT liabilities (UK); OBR, Inheritance tax (UK); nil-rate band history per gov.uk. Context: average UK house price £270,000 in October 2025 (UK House Price Index).

Limitations. The near-10% end-of-decade figure is a projection reported from OBR analysis rather than an outturn, and the doubling is a ratio of a measured share to a forecast share. Regional house-price variation means the drag falls hardest in higher-value areas, so a single UK number understates the spread.

Derived estimate · model

3. Inheritance Concentration Signal

An estimate of how far the transfer reinforces existing wealth gaps. Logic: combine the probability of receiving a significant transfer by income group with the relative lifetime-income uplift by parental wealth.

Calculation. The richest fifth are about twice as likely to receive a significant transfer as the poorest fifth (about 50% versus 25%, Resolution Foundation), and inheritances add roughly 8.5 times more to lifetime income for those with the wealthiest fifth of parents than the poorest fifth (about 17% versus 2%, IFS, 1960s cohort). Weighting relative receipt probability by relative value gives a concentration signal of roughly 16 to 17 times greater inherited advantage at the top than the bottom.

Inputs: Resolution Foundation receipt probabilities (UK); IFS lifetime-income effects (Great Britain).

Limitations. The two sources use different cohorts, geographies and definitions of a significant transfer, so multiplying them is illustrative rather than exact. The signal indicates the direction and rough magnitude of concentration, not a precise multiple, and the underlying projections depend on future asset prices.

Recommended charts

Five chart specifications a newsroom or analyst could build directly from the cited datasets. Described, not embedded.

  1. The rising annual flow. Line chart of modelled UK intergenerational transfers, £69bn (2017) to £115bn (2027) to £355bn (2047). Source: Cebr for Kings Court Trust. Insight: the transfer accelerates for two decades. Citation-worthy because it dates and sources a number often quoted without either.
  2. What the wealth is made of. Stacked bar of GB household wealth composition, property 40%, pensions 35%, financial 14%, physical 10%. Source: ONS, April 2020-March 2022. Insight: property and pensions dominate and both face tax change.
  3. Tax rising, estates falling. Dual-axis chart of IHT liabilities (£6.7bn then £7.03bn) against taxpaying estates (31,500 then 30,400), 2022-23 to 2023-24. Source: HMRC. Insight: larger estates drive receipts.
  4. Inheritance grows across generations. Bar chart of inheritance as share of lifetime income, 9% (1960s-born) to 16% (1980s-born). Source: IFS. Insight: inherited wealth matters more for the young.
  5. The concentration gap. Grouped bars of lifetime-income uplift, 2% (poorest-fifth parents) versus 17% (richest-fifth parents), 1960s cohort. Source: IFS. Insight: the transfer widens gaps.

Methodology

Source selection. Priority went to Tier 1 primary sources: HMRC statistics, ONS, OBR and gov.uk for tax and wealth data, and the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Resolution Foundation for distributional modelling. The Cebr for Kings Court Trust projection is used for the headline transfer scale because no official body publishes a single total; it is labelled Tier 2 and flagged as a dated model throughout.

Inclusion and exclusion. Every figure was fetched from its source and checked for exact value, date and geography before use. Numbers that could not be verified against a named source were excluded, including any precise 2009 house-price comparison, which is why the Frozen-Threshold Drag Index is anchored on the verified threshold freeze and the measured and forecast taxed-death shares rather than an unverified price ratio.

Handling conflicts. Where a market model and official data differ, both are shown with their provenance rather than blended. The Cebr flow, IFS lifetime-income shares and Resolution Foundation receipt probabilities use different methods and vintages and are presented to triangulate, not reconciled to one number.

Estimates. The three synthesis measures are derived by Fairchild Oldfield from the cited datasets, each labelled as an estimate or model with its formula, inputs and limitations stated. None is an official statistic.

Currency. Data reflect the latest releases available at the last review date of July 2026. The ONS Wealth and Assets Survey is used with the caveat that its accredited status was suspended, and older Cebr figures are flagged as dated. Figures are subject to change.

Source quality ranking

SourceUsed forTier
HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statisticsEstates taxed, liabilities, reliefs, share of deathsTier 1 · official statistics
ONS, Household total wealth in Great BritainTotal wealth, composition, distributionTier 1 · official (accreditation suspended)
OBR, Inheritance taxReceipts forecast, pensions-in-scope estimatesTier 1 · official forecast
gov.uk, Inheritance Tax; APR/BPR reformThresholds, rates, relief rulesTier 1 · government
UK House Price Index (gov.uk)Average house price contextTier 1 · official statistics
Institute for Fiscal StudiesInheritance as share of lifetime income, inequalityTier 1 · independent research institute
Resolution FoundationReceipt probability, age of inheritanceTier 1 · independent research foundation
Cebr for Kings Court TrustHeadline transfer scale and annual flowTier 2 · commissioned market research

For journalists and analysts

Most quotable statistics

  • £5.5 trillion is projected to pass between UK generations over roughly 30 years (Cebr for Kings Court Trust, UK, model). Dated · model
  • Total net household wealth in Great Britain was about £13.6 trillion in April 2020 to March 2022 (ONS). Accreditation suspended
  • Inheritance tax fell on 4.62% of UK deaths in 2022-23 (HMRC).
  • The OBR forecasts inheritance tax to raise £8.7 billion in 2025-26 (OBR, UK).
  • Inheritances rise from about 9% of lifetime income for 1960s-born to about 16% for 1980s-born (IFS, Great Britain). Projection
  • The typical inheritance arrives at about age 61 for today's 20 to 35 year-olds (Resolution Foundation, UK). Projection
  • From April 2027, about 10,500 estates become newly liable to IHT as pensions enter the estate (HMRC costings, UK). Forecast

Data limitations

  • The £5.5 trillion total is a commissioned model from a 2017 baseline, not an official statistic.
  • The ONS wealth survey had its accredited status suspended and should be treated as indicative.
  • IFS and Resolution Foundation figures are projections dependent on future asset prices and longevity.
  • The three synthesis measures are Fairchild Oldfield estimates that combine datasets not designed to be divided.

Recommended dataset fields

For a downloadable companion dataset: metric name; value; unit; geography (UK / Great Britain / England and Wales); reference period; source organisation; source URL; tier (1-3); statistic type (official / forecast / model / derived); flag (current / dated / accreditation-suspended); note.

Press summary (about 150 words)

The United Kingdom's great wealth transfer is large, slow and uneven. The most cited figure, £5.5 trillion passing between generations over roughly 30 years, is a model built by Cebr for Kings Court Trust from a 2017 baseline, and is best quoted with that provenance. Official data set the context: total net household wealth in Great Britain was about £13.6 trillion in 2020-22 (ONS), of which property and pensions were three-quarters. Yet inheritance tax reached only 4.62% of UK deaths in 2022-23 (HMRC), and the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts £8.7 billion of receipts in 2025-26. The transfer arrives late, at a typical age of 61 (Resolution Foundation), and unequally: the IFS projects inheritances lift lifetime income by 2% for those with the poorest parents against 17% for the richest. Frozen thresholds and pensions entering the estate from April 2027 widen the tax base further.

Five suggested headlines

  • The UK's £5.5 trillion wealth transfer is real, but arrives late and unequally
  • Only 4.62% of UK deaths pay inheritance tax, even as receipts hit record highs
  • Inheritance now worth 16% of lifetime income for the 1980s generation
  • Britain's inheritance windfall lands at 61, and mostly at the top
  • Frozen thresholds and pension changes pull more estates into inheritance tax by 2030

Frequently asked questions

How much is the UK great wealth transfer worth?

The most cited estimate is £5.5 trillion passing between UK generations over roughly 30 years, in a model produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research for Kings Court Trust (UK). It is a projection from a 2017 baseline, not an official statistic, so it is best quoted as a modelled estimate with its source attached rather than a measured total.

How large is the annual flow of inheritances in the UK?

The same Cebr model projected UK intergenerational transfers rising from £69 billion in 2017 to £115 billion by 2027, a 66% increase, and reaching £355 billion a year by 2047 (Cebr for Kings Court Trust, UK). These are modelled figures from a 2017 baseline and should be treated as indicative of the trajectory rather than precise annual totals.

What is the total wealth held by UK households?

Total net wealth of private households in Great Britain was about £13.6 trillion in April 2020 to March 2022 (ONS, Household total wealth in Great Britain). Property made up 40% and private pensions 35%. The Office for Statistics Regulation suspended the survey's accredited status, so the figure is indicative rather than definitive.

How much of the transferred wealth is taxed?

Very little relative to the flow. Inheritance tax created £6.7 billion of liabilities in 2022-23 and fell on 4.62% of UK deaths (HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics). Most estates pass free of the tax because of the nil-rate bands, the spouse and civil-partner exemption, and reliefs for business and agricultural property.

How many estates pay inheritance tax?

There were 31,500 taxpaying estates in 2022-23, falling 3.6% to 30,400 in 2023-24, even as total liabilities rose to £7.03 billion (HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, UK). Receipts are rising because larger estates carry the increase, while the number of taxpaying estates has edged down slightly.

When do most people receive an inheritance?

The typical age at which today's 20 to 35 year-olds are projected to receive an inheritance is about 61 (Resolution Foundation, UK). Because inheritances arrive relatively late, they do little for the life stages, such as first-time home ownership in a person's twenties and thirties, when money tends to be scarcest.

Does the wealth transfer reduce inequality?

The evidence points the other way. The IFS projects that for people born in the 1960s, inheritances add about 2% to lifetime income for those with the poorest fifth of parents against about 17% for the wealthiest fifth (Institute for Fiscal Studies, Great Britain). Larger inheritances flow disproportionately to people who are already better off.

How will pensions entering inheritance tax change things?

From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds count towards the estate for inheritance tax. HMRC estimates that of about 213,000 estates a year with inheritable pension wealth, about 10,500 become newly liable and about 38,500 pay more, with new bills averaging around £34,000 (HMRC costings, reported alongside OBR, UK). These are forecasts and depend on behaviour and asset values.

Is the £5.5 trillion figure reliable?

It is a reasonable order-of-magnitude estimate but not an official statistic. It is a market-commissioned model built on a 2017 baseline, before recent interest-rate, house-price and pension changes. It is best used to convey scale and direction, cross-checked against official ONS wealth data and HMRC tax data, and always quoted with its source and vintage.

What happens to inheritance tax thresholds in the coming years?

The nil-rate band of £325,000 and the residence nil-rate band of up to £175,000 are frozen to the end of the 2030-31 tax year, i.e. 5 April 2031 (Budget 2025, 26 November 2025, which extended the freeze by a year from its previous end-of-2029-30 position; gov.uk). With frozen thresholds and pensions entering the estate from April 2027, widely reported OBR analysis suggests the share of deaths liable could approach 10% by the end of the decade, up from 4.62% in 2022-23.

Related reading: The great wealth transfer in the UK, our estate planning guide, and Inheritance Tax explained.

About Fairchild Oldfield

The Fairchild Oldfield team brings together estate planning, tax and client care, working with families across England and Wales. This briefing reports public data and does not provide advice.

Fairchild Oldfield are estate planning specialists and will writers, not a firm of solicitors.

Important: This briefing is general information and factual data reporting only, and is not legal, tax or financial advice. It reflects the law of England and Wales; other UK jurisdictions differ. Figures are dated at their point of use and are current as at July 2026 and subject to change. Figures marked as models, estimates or projections are not official statistics and should not be presented as such. Reading this does not create a professional relationship. Before acting, many people choose to seek advice from a suitably qualified professional who can consider their individual circumstances.

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