Inheritance Tax Receipts Forecast to 2030

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the independent body that produces the official forecasts used at UK fiscal events. Its Inheritance Tax forecast projects receipts to rise as asset prices grow while the tax-free thresholds stay frozen, a policy the OBR notes runs up to and including 2030-31 (OBR, November 2025 forecast, as at July 2026, subject to change).

This is a data piece. It sets out the published forecast and outturn figures on Inheritance Tax receipts and the estates behind them, drawing only on named official statistics from the OBR, HMRC and gov.uk publications, each cited at the point of use. No figure has been estimated or extrapolated. It sits alongside our Inheritance Tax Explained guide, our IHT receipts data reference, and our wider estate planning guide. Figures are current as at July 2026 and are subject to change; forecasts can be revised at any fiscal event. The tax is UK-wide, and where devolved law differs it is flagged.

What is the OBR Inheritance Tax forecast?

The OBR Inheritance Tax forecast is the independent projection of how much the tax is expected to raise, built from forecasts for things like house prices and equity prices. For 2025-26 the OBR forecasts that Inheritance Tax will raise £8.7 billion, about 0.7% of all receipts, equivalent to 0.3% of national income or roughly £300 per household (OBR, November 2025 forecast, as at July 2026, subject to change).

That forecast sits close to HMRC's outturn figures. HMRC's receipts bulletin records that Inheritance Tax raised £8.5 billion across the UK in 2025-26, up from £3.5 billion in 2006-07 (HMRC annual bulletin, updated 19 June 2026, as at July 2026, subject to change). The forecast and the outturn use slightly different bases, so a small gap between them is normal.

Key figures at a glance

The forecast and outturn data point the same way: receipts rising while the £325,000 nil-rate band stays fixed. Each row below is a published figure from a named source, with its reference period and a link. The OBR forecasts £8.7 billion for 2025-26, and the thresholds are frozen up to and including 2030-31 (OBR, as at July 2026, subject to change).

All figures as at July 2026 and subject to change. Receipts and forecast figures are UK-wide.

The freeze to 2030-31 in numbers

A frozen threshold is the main reason the forecast rises. The nil-rate band (£325,000), the residence nil-rate band (up to £175,000) and the £2,000,000 taper threshold are fixed at their current levels until the end of the 2030-31 tax year (5 April 2031), a freeze extended a further year at Budget 2025 (26 November 2025), and HMRC's receipts commentary describes the tax-free thresholds as maintained at their 2020-21 levels up to and including 2030-31 (gov.uk, as at July 2026, subject to change; HMRC, as at July 2026, subject to change).

The same publication forecasts that extending the freeze raises the proportion of all UK deaths subject to Inheritance Tax by 0.2 percentage points in 2028-29 and 0.4 percentage points in 2029-30 (gov.uk, as at July 2026, subject to change). The table below sets those forecast effects side by side.

Per gov.uk publication (from 6 April 2028), as at July 2026, subject to change. UK-wide.

Estates and deaths behind the numbers

Higher receipts sit on a still-modest share of estates. In the latest published year, 2022-23, there were 31,500 taxpaying IHT estates, an increase of 3,700 (13%) on the previous year, and 4.62% of UK deaths resulted in an Inheritance Tax charge, up 0.23 percentage points (HMRC, as at July 2026, subject to change).

HMRC describes that as fewer than 1 in 20 estates becoming subject to Inheritance Tax, in line with the trend since 2007-08, and reports that £6.70 billion of liabilities were created in 2022-23, up £0.71 billion (12%) on the prior year (HMRC, as at July 2026, subject to change). So the forecast growth in receipts reflects a rising base of estate values more than a sudden jump in the share of families affected.

Per HMRC Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, 2022-23, as at July 2026, subject to change. UK-wide.

What the numbers mean

Read together, the forecast and outturn describe a slow, compounding rise rather than a policy shock. The OBR's £8.7 billion forecast for 2025-26 sits close to HMRC's £8.5 billion outturn, and both partly reflect the same £325,000 threshold applying to larger estates as asset prices climb (OBR, as at July 2026, subject to change; HMRC, as at July 2026, subject to change). None of this is a change in the 40% rate; it is the base widening beneath a still threshold.

The share of deaths taxed remains modest in the latest published year, at 4.62% for 2022-23, so the great majority of estates still pay nothing (HMRC, as at July 2026, subject to change). The government's own forecast for extending the freeze adds only fractions of a percentage point a year to that share (gov.uk, as at July 2026, subject to change). The effect is real but gradual, and it tends to matter most for estates already near the combined threshold, particularly where a home makes up much of the value. A forecast is a projection, not a fixed outcome, and it can be revised at any fiscal event. Whether any of this affects a given family depends entirely on their own circumstances, so it can be worth discussing the figures with a qualified professional rather than reading a national trend as a personal result.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Inheritance Tax is a UK-wide tax, so the OBR forecast, the £325,000 nil-rate band, the up to £175,000 residence nil-rate band, the 40% rate and the freeze to the end of 2030-31 (5 April 2031) apply the same way in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (gov.uk, as at July 2026, subject to change). What differs across the nations is the surrounding law that shapes an estate, such as succession rules and, in Scotland, the legal rights of children and spouses, and the process for winding up an estate. The OBR and HMRC figures above are collected UK-wide, so they are not broken down by nation here.

Sources and methodology

Every figure on this page comes from a named official source and was checked against that source before publication. No number has been estimated, rounded beyond the source, or extrapolated. Forecasts are described as forecasts and outturn figures as outturn. The sources used are listed below with their reference periods.

• Forecast receipts and drivers: Office for Budget Responsibility, Inheritance tax (£8.7bn, 0.3% of national income, about £300 per household, 2025-26 forecast; house prices +70% 2009 to 2023; freeze to 2030-31). November 2025 forecast, as at July 2026.
• Receipts outturn and freeze commentary: HMRC tax receipts, annual bulletin (£3.5bn in 2006-07 to £8.5bn in 2025-26; thresholds at 2020-21 levels to 2030-31). Updated 19 June 2026.
• Core rates and allowances: gov.uk, Inheritance Tax (£325,000 nil-rate band, up to £175,000 residence nil-rate band, 40%/36% rates, spouse exemption). As at July 2026.
• Extended freeze forecast: gov.uk publication (from 6 April 2028) (freeze to end of 2030-31 (5 April 2031); £110m and £355m; 1,400 and 2,900 additional estates; +0.2 and +0.4 percentage points).
• Taxpaying estates, share of deaths, liabilities: HMRC Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, commentary (31,500 estates, 4.62% of deaths, £6.70bn liabilities, 2022-23).

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