Inheritance is common; taxed inheritance is rare. Around one in three UK adults have received or expect to receive an inheritance or substantial gift, yet fewer than one in twenty deaths currently triggers an Inheritance Tax charge. Both of those facts are changing, and the direction of travel is the substance of this briefing.
This is a data briefing, not advice. Every statistic below states its figure, its date, its geography and its source. Figures for Inheritance Tax thresholds and reliefs are current as at July 2026 and are subject to change. Where the underlying data carries a health warning, that warning is printed next to the number rather than hidden in a footnote.
Executive summary
- 30,400 estates paid Inheritance Tax in 2023-24, equal to 4.72% of UK deaths, the highest taxed share since 2006-07 (HMRC, published 30 July 2026, UK).
- Inheritance Tax raised £7.03 billion in 2023-24, a record, up 5% on £6.70 billion the year before (HMRC, 2023-24, UK).
- The average bill among taxpaying estates was £231,000, at an average effective rate of 13% against the 40% headline rate, reflecting reliefs and exemptions (HMRC, 2023-24, UK).
- Fewer than one in three UK adults (32%) have benefited or expect to benefit from an inheritance or gift in their lifetime (Resolution Foundation, 3 February 2022, UK).
- The annual value of inheritances is projected to double over roughly two decades as the baby-boomer cohort passes on its wealth (Resolution Foundation, 2022, UK).
- Inheritances are worth about 9% of lifetime income for people born in the 1960s, rising to about 16% for those born in the 1980s (Institute for Fiscal Studies, UK).
- Total privately owned household wealth in Great Britain was £13.6 trillion in April 2020 to March 2022, though these statistics have since lost their official accreditation (ONS, released 24 January 2025, Great Britain).
- Inheritance Tax receipts are forecast to reach £14.3 billion by 2029-30 as frozen thresholds and reform widen the base (OBR, November 2025 forecast, as reported by BDO, UK).
Key findings
Each finding below is a self-contained sentence with a figure, a date, a geography and a citation. They are ordered from the scale of inherited wealth, through who receives it, to how it is taxed and what it does to the distribution of resources.
1. Total privately owned household wealth in Great Britain stood at £13.6 trillion in the period April 2020 to March 2022.Source: ONS, Household total wealth in Great Britain, released 24 January 2025, Great Britain. ons.gov.uk
2. Median household wealth in Great Britain was £293,700 in April 2020 to March 2022, while the wealthiest 10% of households each held £1,200,500 or more.Source: ONS, Household total wealth in Great Britain, released 24 January 2025, Great Britain. ons.gov.uk
3. Fewer than one in three UK adults, 32%, have benefited or expect to benefit from an inheritance or gift in their lifetime, on a YouGov survey of 8,749 adults.Source: Resolution Foundation, "Intergenerational rapport fair?", 3 February 2022, UK. resolutionfoundation.org
4. The richest fifth of earners are twice as likely to receive a significant wealth transfer as the poorest fifth, at 50% against 25%.Source: Resolution Foundation, "Intergenerational rapport fair?", 3 February 2022, UK. resolutionfoundation.org
5. The typical age at which people aged 20 to 35 today are projected to receive an inheritance is 61.Source: Resolution Foundation, "Intergenerational rapport fair?", 3 February 2022, UK. resolutionfoundation.org
6. Around 6% of homeowners say they own a property they could not have bought without a wealth transfer, roughly 1.6 million households.Source: Resolution Foundation, "Intergenerational rapport fair?", 3 February 2022, UK. resolutionfoundation.org
7. Inheritances are projected to be worth about 9% of lifetime income for people born in the 1960s, rising to about 16% for those born in the 1980s, almost double.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, "Inheritances and inequality over the life cycle", UK. ifs.org.uk
8. For those born in the 1960s, inheritances are projected to raise lifetime incomes by 2% on average for people whose parents are in the bottom fifth of the wealth distribution, against 17% for those whose parents are in the top fifth.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, "Inheritances and inequality over the life cycle", UK. ifs.org.uk
9. People born in the 1980s have parents with average household wealth of about £370,000, more than 40% higher in real terms than the roughly £250,000 held by the parents of those born in the 1970s.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, "Inheritances and inequality within generations", UK. ifs.org.uk
10. 30,400 estates paid Inheritance Tax in 2023-24, a fall of 3.6% from 31,500 in 2022-23, even as receipts rose.Source: HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, published 30 July 2026, UK. gov.uk
11. Those 30,400 taxpaying estates equalled 4.72% of UK deaths in 2023-24, up from 4.62% the year before and the highest share since 2006-07, when it reached 5.96%.Source: HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, published 30 July 2026, UK. gov.uk
12. Inheritance Tax liabilities reached a record £7.03 billion in 2023-24, up £330 million, or 5%, from £6.70 billion in 2022-23.Source: HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, published 30 July 2026, UK. gov.uk
13. The average bill among taxpaying estates rose 9% to £231,000 in 2023-24, from £212,000, while the average effective rate on those estates was 13% against a 40% headline rate.Source: HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, published 30 July 2026, UK. gov.uk
14. 31,000 estates used the residence nil-rate band in 2023-24, sheltering £7.79 billion of estate value from tax.Source: HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, published 30 July 2026, UK. gov.uk
15. Inheritance Tax receipts are forecast to rise to £14.3 billion by 2029-30, roughly double the 2023-24 total, as thresholds stay frozen and reforms widen the base.Source: OBR, November 2025 forecast, as reported by BDO, UK. bdo.co.uk
The scale and distribution of household wealth
Inherited wealth is a function of the stock of wealth held by older households and the rate at which it is passed on. The stock is large and unevenly held. The ONS Wealth and Assets Survey is the standard source, and its most recent published round covers April 2020 to March 2022.
| Measure (Great Britain, Apr 2020 to Mar 2022) | Figure |
|---|---|
| Total privately owned household wealth | £13.6 trillion |
| Median household wealth | £293,700 |
| Wealthiest 10% of households (threshold) | £1,200,500 or more |
| Least wealthy 10% of households | £16,500 or less |
| Share of wealth in net property | 40% |
| Share of wealth in private pensions | 35% |
| Share of wealth in net financial assets | 14% |
| Share of wealth in physical assets | 10% |
Source: ONS, Household total wealth in Great Britain, released 24 January 2025, Great Britain.
Property and pensions together account for three-quarters of household wealth, which matters for inheritance because both are concentrated among older owners and both feed the estates that later pass at death. The gap between median wealth of £293,700 and the £1.2 million top-decile threshold shows how much of the wealth that will be inherited sits with a minority of households.
Who inherits, and when
Receiving an inheritance is less universal than often assumed, and its timing is late in life. The Resolution Foundation's survey evidence and the IFS projections agree on the broad shape: transfers are common but skewed toward households that are already better off, and they typically arrive around retirement age rather than during the years of family formation.
| Finding (UK) | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Have benefited or expect to benefit from an inheritance or gift | 32% | Resolution Foundation, 2022 |
| Richest fifth receiving a significant transfer | 50% | Resolution Foundation, 2022 |
| Poorest fifth receiving a significant transfer | 25% | Resolution Foundation, 2022 |
| Projected typical age of receipt (today's 20-35s) | 61 | Resolution Foundation, 2022 |
| Homeowners who could not have bought without a transfer | 6% (~1.6m households) | Resolution Foundation, 2022 |
| Share of gifts supporting property purchases | 33% | Resolution Foundation, 2022 |
Source: Resolution Foundation, "Intergenerational rapport fair?", 3 February 2022, UK, based on a YouGov survey of 8,749 adults.
The projected age of receipt of 61 is the single most consequential number here: an inheritance that arrives in a recipient's seventh decade cannot help with the deposit for a first home decades earlier, which is where the housing effects of inherited wealth concentrate among those who receive gifts, rather than bequests, earlier in life.
How estates are taxed
Most estates pay no Inheritance Tax. Among those that do, reliefs and exemptions cut the average effective rate to about a third of the headline 40%. The HMRC liabilities statistics, published 30 July 2026 and covering 2023-24, are accredited administrative data and the firmest numbers in this briefing.
| HMRC measure | 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|
| Taxpaying estates | 31,500 | 30,400 |
| Share of UK deaths taxed | 4.62% | 4.72% |
| Total IHT liabilities | £6.70bn | £7.03bn |
| Average bill per taxpaying estate | £212,000 | £231,000 |
| Average effective rate on taxpaying estates | n/a | 13% |
| Estates using the residence nil-rate band | n/a | 31,000 |
| Value sheltered by the residence nil-rate band | n/a | £7.79bn |
Source: HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics, published 30 July 2026, UK.
The fall in taxpaying estates while receipts rose reflects a smaller number of larger estates being taxed more, alongside timing effects in when tax is recorded. Agricultural and business reliefs remain material to the total: in 2023-24, 2,140 estates claimed £2.11 billion of Agricultural Property Relief and 4,060 estates claimed £3.85 billion of Business Property Relief, £5.96 billion combined (HMRC, 2023-24, UK).
Current thresholds and reliefs, England and Wales, July 2026
The framework below is current as at July 2026 and is subject to change. See our Inheritance Tax explained guide for how the allowances interact.
| Allowance or rate | Level |
|---|---|
| Nil-rate band | £325,000 |
| Residence nil-rate band | Up to £175,000 |
| Combined per person, with a home to descendants | Up to £500,000 |
| Combined per couple, with a home to descendants | Up to £1,000,000 |
| Standard rate | 40% |
| Reduced rate (10%+ of estate to charity) | 36% |
| Taper threshold (residence band tapers above) | £2,000,000 |
Source: gov.uk/inheritance-tax, as at July 2026, subject to change. Thresholds are frozen until the end of the 2030-31 tax year (5 April 2031), a freeze extended a further year at Budget 2025 (26 November 2025).
What inherited wealth does to inequality
The IFS work, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, is the strongest UK evidence on the distributional effect. Its central finding is that inheritances are growing relative to lifetime income, and that they widen gaps by parental background rather than narrow them.
| IFS projection (UK) | Born 1960s | Born 1980s |
|---|---|---|
| Inheritance as a share of lifetime income | ~9% | ~16% |
| Lifetime-income uplift from inheritance, born 1960s (UK) | Uplift |
|---|---|
| Parents in the bottom fifth of the wealth distribution | +2% |
| Parents in the top fifth of the wealth distribution | +17% |
Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, "Inheritances and inequality over the life cycle", UK.
Because inheritances track parental wealth, and parental wealth has risen for later cohorts, inherited wealth is becoming a larger determinant of living standards for the young than it was for their parents. The IFS separately finds that the parents of those born in the 1980s held about £370,000 on average, more than 40% higher in real terms than the roughly £250,000 held by parents of the 1970s-born cohort.
Forecasts: a widening tax base
Two forces push the Inheritance Tax base wider through this decade: frozen thresholds against rising asset prices, and specific reforms. The OBR is the authority on the fiscal path.
| OBR / HMRC forecast measure (UK) | Figure |
|---|---|
| IHT receipts, 2025-26 (OBR, November 2025) | £8.7 billion |
| IHT as a share of all tax receipts, 2025-26 | 0.7% |
| IHT as a share of national income, 2025-26 | 0.3% |
| IHT receipts forecast, 2029-30 | £14.3 billion |
| Nil-rate band, frozen to | 2030-31 |
Sources: OBR, Inheritance Tax, November 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (2025-26 figures and threshold freeze, directly verified); 2029-30 receipts figure per the same OBR forecast as reported by BDO, UK.
Related reading on the mechanics: the great wealth transfer in the UK, our estate planning guide, and Inheritance Tax explained.
Original synthesis
The three measures below are derived by combining published datasets. Each is an estimate or a ratio computed by Fairchild Oldfield from the sources named, not an official statistic. The logic, the inputs and the limitations are stated in full so the calculation can be checked or reproduced.
1. The expectation-to-taxation gap
About 32% of UK adults expect to inherit (Resolution Foundation, 2022), while 4.72% of deaths currently trigger an IHT charge (HMRC, 2023-24). Dividing one by the other gives a ratio of roughly 6.8 to 1: for every death that is taxed, close to seven adults expect to receive something. On the OBR path toward a 2029-30 receipts total of £14.3 billion and a taxed-death share widely put near one in ten, that gap narrows materially.
Formula: share expecting to inherit ÷ share of deaths taxed = 32% ÷ 4.72% ≈ 6.8. Inputs: Resolution Foundation, 2022; HMRC, 2023-24. Limitations: the numerator is self-reported expectation over a lifetime; the denominator is deaths in a single year. The two are not the same population or period, so the ratio illustrates scale, not a precise probability.
2. The taxed-death doubling index
The share of UK deaths incurring Inheritance Tax was 4.72% in 2023-24 (HMRC actual). The OBR's forecast, as reported, implies a taxed-death share approaching one in ten by 2029-30. Indexing the later figure to the earlier one gives a projected increase of roughly 2.0 times in the taxed-death share across about six years, driven by frozen thresholds and the 2026 and 2027 reforms.
Formula: forecast taxed-death share ÷ 2023-24 taxed-death share (≈ 9.5% ÷ 4.72% ≈ 2.0). Inputs: HMRC, 2023-24 (base); OBR November 2025 forecast, as reported by BDO (out-year). Limitations: the base is accredited administrative data; the out-year share is a forecast reported via a secondary source and depends on asset prices and behaviour. Label as a model, not an official projection.
3. The parental-wealth inheritance multiplier
For people born in the 1960s, the IFS projects that inheritances lift lifetime incomes by 17% where parents are in the top wealth fifth, against 2% where parents are in the bottom fifth. Dividing the two gives a multiplier of about 8.5 times: inheritance boosts the lifetime resources of those with the wealthiest parents roughly eight to nine times more than those with the poorest, in proportional terms.
Formula: top-fifth uplift ÷ bottom-fifth uplift = 17% ÷ 2% ≈ 8.5. Inputs: IFS, "Inheritances and inequality over the life cycle". Limitations: both inputs are IFS projections for a single cohort, rounded to whole percentages, so the ratio is approximate. It compares proportional uplifts, not absolute pounds, which would show a far larger gap.
Recommended charts
Five chart specifications for editors and analysts. Data and sources are named; images are not embedded.
- Share of UK deaths incurring IHT, 2006-07 to 2029-30. Data: annual taxed-death share, HMRC actuals to 2023-24 plus OBR forecast to 2029-30. Insight: the taxed share is set to roughly double this decade after touching a post-2007 low. Citation-worthy because it turns "more estates caught" into one clean, dated line.
- IHT receipts, £ billion, 2019-20 to 2029-30. Data: HMRC receipts and OBR forecast. Insight: receipts rising from single-digit to double-digit billions. Citation-worthy as the fiscal headline number editors reach for.
- Inheritance as a share of lifetime income, by birth decade. Data: IFS projections for 1960s, 1970s and 1980s cohorts. Insight: inherited wealth roughly doubling in importance across two decades of births. Citation-worthy for the generational-fairness debate.
- Lifetime-income uplift from inheritance, by parental wealth quintile. Data: IFS, 1960s cohort, 2% to 17% across quintiles. Insight: inheritance widens gaps by parental background. Citation-worthy as the clearest single picture of inheritance and inequality.
- Composition of Great Britain household wealth. Data: ONS, property 40%, pensions 35%, financial 14%, physical 10%. Insight: the assets that will be inherited are dominated by housing and pensions. Citation-worthy for context on where inheritable wealth sits.
Methodology
Source selection. Preference was given to primary and official sources: HMRC administrative statistics for tax, ONS survey data for wealth stocks, OBR for forecasts, and the IFS and Resolution Foundation for distributional research. Market and trade commentary was used only to relay a primary figure that the headline source did not reproduce online, and is tier-labelled where used.
Inclusion and exclusion. Every figure retained states a value, a date and a geography and links to its source. Figures that could not be verified against a named source were excluded. The originally announced £1,000,000 Agricultural and Business Property Relief allowance was excluded as superseded, in favour of the £2,500,000 allowance confirmed on 23 December 2025.
Handling conflicts. Where a figure appeared only in secondary reporting of an OBR forecast, it is presented as such and flagged, rather than restated as a direct OBR web figure. Survey-based Resolution Foundation numbers are kept distinct from administrative HMRC numbers and are not blended into single comparisons.
Derived figures. The three synthesis measures are ratios and index numbers computed from the named datasets. Each is labelled an estimate or model, with its formula and limitations printed alongside. None is an official statistic.
Limitations and last update. The ONS wealth series lost its Official Statistics accreditation in June 2025 and is treated as indicative. Survey figures reflect expectations, not records. Forecasts depend on asset prices and behaviour. This briefing was last reviewed in July 2026; thresholds and reliefs are subject to change.
Source quality ranking
| Tier | Source | Used for |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | HMRC, Inheritance Tax liabilities statistics | Taxpaying estates, taxed-death share, receipts, average bill, effective rate, reliefs |
| Tier 1 | ONS, Wealth and Assets Survey | Total household wealth, median, deciles, wealth composition |
| Tier 1 | OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook | IHT receipts forecast, threshold freeze, share of receipts and GDP |
| Tier 1 | Institute for Fiscal Studies | Inheritance as a share of lifetime income; inequality by parental wealth |
| Tier 1 | Resolution Foundation | Expectation to inherit, distribution of transfers, age of receipt, housing effect |
| Tier 1 | gov.uk / HM Treasury (Budget 2025; 23 Dec 2025 reliefs) | Current thresholds, rates, freeze extension, APR/BPR reform |
| Tier 2 | BDO | Relaying the OBR 2029-30 receipts figure not on the OBR web page |
| Tier 3 | Money Marketing and trade press | Cross-checking HMRC headline figures only; no unique numbers relied on |
For journalists
Most quotable statistics
- 4.72% of UK deaths incurred an Inheritance Tax charge in 2023-24, the highest share since 2006-07 (HMRC, published 30 July 2026).
- Inheritance Tax raised a record £7.03 billion in 2023-24 (HMRC, 2023-24, UK).
- The average taxpaying estate paid £231,000, at an effective rate of 13% (HMRC, 2023-24, UK).
- Fewer than one in three UK adults (32%) expect to benefit from an inheritance or gift (Resolution Foundation, 2022, UK).
- The typical age at which today's 20-35s are projected to inherit is 61 (Resolution Foundation, 2022, UK).
- Inheritances are worth about 9% of lifetime income for the 1960s-born, rising to about 16% for the 1980s-born (IFS, UK).
- Inheritance lifts lifetime income by 2% for those with the poorest parents and 17% for those with the richest (IFS, 1960s cohort, UK).
- IHT receipts are forecast to reach £14.3 billion by 2029-30 (OBR, November 2025, via BDO, UK).
Data limitations
- ONS wealth statistics lost Official Statistics accreditation in June 2025 and are indicative, not accredited.
- Resolution Foundation figures are self-reported survey data from one 2022 YouGov sample of 8,749 adults.
- The £14.3 billion 2029-30 figure is an OBR forecast reported via a secondary source, not taken from the OBR web page directly.
- IFS shares are cohort projections rounded to whole percentages; derived ratios are approximate.
- HMRC taxed-death shares and Resolution Foundation expectation data cover different populations and periods and are not directly comparable.
Recommended dataset fields
For a downloadable companion dataset: tax_year; geography (UK / GB / England and Wales); taxpaying_estates; deaths_total; taxed_death_share_pct; iht_liabilities_gbp; average_bill_gbp; effective_rate_pct; rnrb_estates; rnrb_value_sheltered_gbp; apr_claims; apr_value_gbp; bpr_claims; bpr_value_gbp; source; source_url; last_verified_date.
Press summary
Inheritance in the UK is common but unevenly shared, and the tax that falls on it is widening its reach. Fewer than one in three adults expect to inherit, yet 4.72% of deaths triggered an Inheritance Tax charge in 2023-24, the highest share since 2006-07, raising a record £7.03 billion (HMRC). The average taxed estate paid £231,000 at an effective rate of 13%. The Institute for Fiscal Studies finds inheritances are growing relative to lifetime income, from about 9% for the 1960s-born to 16% for the 1980s-born, and that they widen gaps by parental wealth, lifting lifetime incomes by 17% for those with the richest parents against 2% for those with the poorest. With thresholds frozen to 2030-31, the OBR expects receipts to reach £14.3 billion by 2029-30. Figures are dated and England and Wales rules apply to reliefs.
Five suggested headlines
- Taxed at death: the share of UK estates paying Inheritance Tax hits a 17-year high
- One in three expect to inherit, one in twenty estates pays the tax
- Inherited wealth is growing twice as fast for the young as for their parents' generation
- The £14 billion question: how frozen thresholds widen the inheritance net
- Born to the right parents: how inheritance multiplies advantage eightfold
Frequently asked questions
How many people in the UK inherit wealth?
Fewer than one in three UK adults, 32%, have benefited or expect to benefit from an inheritance or gift during their lifetime, according to a Resolution Foundation analysis of a 2022 YouGov survey of 8,749 adults. Receipt is skewed toward better-off households: the richest fifth of earners are twice as likely to receive a significant transfer as the poorest fifth, at 50% against 25% (Resolution Foundation, 2022, UK).
What proportion of estates pay Inheritance Tax?
In 2023-24, 30,400 estates paid Inheritance Tax, equal to 4.72% of all UK deaths, according to HMRC statistics published on 30 July 2026. That was up from 4.62% the previous year and the highest taxed share since 2006-07, when it reached 5.96%. More than 95% of estates paid no Inheritance Tax at all in 2023-24 (HMRC, UK).
How much does Inheritance Tax raise?
Inheritance Tax liabilities reached a record £7.03 billion in 2023-24, up 5% from £6.70 billion the previous year, according to HMRC statistics published on 30 July 2026. The OBR forecast Inheritance Tax to raise £8.7 billion in 2025-26, about 0.7% of all tax receipts, rising toward £14.3 billion by 2029-30 as frozen thresholds and reforms widen the base (OBR, November 2025, UK).
What is the average Inheritance Tax bill?
Among estates that paid Inheritance Tax in 2023-24, the average bill was £231,000, up 9% from £212,000 the year before, according to HMRC statistics published on 30 July 2026. The average effective rate on those taxpaying estates was 13%, well below the 40% headline rate, because reliefs, exemptions and the tax-free thresholds reduce the taxable portion of most estates (HMRC, UK).
How much total wealth could be inherited in the UK?
Total privately owned household wealth in Great Britain was £13.6 trillion in April 2020 to March 2022, according to the ONS Wealth and Assets Survey released on 24 January 2025. Property made up 40% of that wealth and private pensions 35%. These statistics lost their Official Statistics accreditation in June 2025 and should be read as indicative rather than accredited (ONS, Great Britain).
Is inherited wealth making inequality worse?
The Institute for Fiscal Studies projects that for people born in the 1960s, inheritances raise lifetime incomes by 2% on average where parents are in the poorest fifth, against 17% where parents are in the richest fifth. Because inheritances track parental wealth, they widen gaps by parental background, and the IFS finds this effect is larger for younger generations (IFS, UK).
At what age do people typically inherit?
The Resolution Foundation projects that people aged 20 to 35 today will typically receive an inheritance at around age 61, based on its 2022 analysis. That timing means bequests generally arrive around retirement, long after the years of buying a first home or raising children, which is why earlier lifetime gifts, rather than inheritances, do most of the work in the housing market (Resolution Foundation, 2022, UK).
Is inherited wealth growing?
The Resolution Foundation projects that the annual value of inheritances will roughly double over about two decades as the baby-boomer cohort passes on its wealth (Resolution Foundation, 2022, UK). The Institute for Fiscal Studies finds inheritances growing relative to lifetime income, from about 9% for people born in the 1960s to about 16% for those born in the 1980s, almost double (IFS, UK).
How much do agricultural and business reliefs shelter?
In 2023-24, 2,140 estates claimed £2.11 billion of Agricultural Property Relief and 4,060 estates claimed £3.85 billion of Business Property Relief, £5.96 billion combined, according to HMRC. From 6 April 2026 these reliefs give 100% relief on the first £2,500,000 of combined qualifying assets per person and 50% above that, transferable up to £5,000,000 per couple (gov.uk, 23 December 2025, England and Wales default).
Why are more estates being pulled into Inheritance Tax?
The nil-rate band has been £325,000 since 2009 and is frozen until the end of the 2030-31 tax year, a freeze extended a further year at Budget 2025 on 26 November 2025, while asset prices have risen. The OBR expects this fiscal drag, alongside reform, to lift receipts toward £14.3 billion by 2029-30 (OBR, November 2025; gov.uk, UK).