Adult social care spending in the UK is projected to rise from 1.2% of GDP in 2030-31 to 1.8% of GDP by 2075-76 on the baseline projection, mainly because the population is ageing (OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability, published 7 July 2026; projections are not forecasts).
Future care demand is one of the slow-moving pressures that shapes later-life planning. As more people reach the oldest ages, more families reach the stage where care, a lasting power of attorney and the cost of later-life support come into view. This piece gathers the current projections and activity data from named official sources, mainly the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Office for National Statistics and NHS England, and offers some hedged, general reading of what they can and cannot tell you. Every figure is dated and linked to its source, and the long-range projections describe possible futures rather than certainties.
Key figures at a glance
On the most recent official data, adult social care spending is projected to grow faster than the economy over the long run, the population aged 85 and over is projected to almost double by 2047, and local authorities already receive around two million requests for support a year. Each statistic below carries its named source and reference period.
| Measure | Figure | Source & period |
|---|---|---|
| Adult social care spending (UK), 2030-31 | 1.2% of GDP | OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability (7 July 2026) |
| Projected adult social care spending (UK), 2075-76 | 1.8% of GDP | OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability (7 July 2026) |
| Health spending (UK), 2030-31 to 2075-76 | 8% → 13% of GDP | OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability (7 July 2026) |
| Population aged 85 and over (UK), mid-2022 | 1.7 million (2.5%) | ONS 2022-based projections (28 Jan 2025) |
| Projected population aged 85 and over (UK), mid-2047 | 3.3 million (4.3%) | ONS 2022-based projections (28 Jan 2025) |
| Requests for support from new clients (England), 2024-25 | 2.02 million (66% aged 65+) | Adult social care activity report, England 2024-25 (16 June 2026) |
| People receiving long-term support (England), 31 March 2025 | 672,000 (up from 650,000) | Adult social care activity report, England 2024-25 (16 June 2026) |
| Unpaid carers (England & Wales), 2021 | 5.0 million (9.0%) | ONS Unpaid care, Census 2021 (19 Jan 2023) |
| Healthy life expectancy at birth (UK), 2022-2024 | 60.7 yrs (males), 60.9 yrs (females) | ONS Health state life expectancies, UK (19 Feb 2026) |
Reference periods as published. OBR figures are long-term baseline projections from the July 2026 Fiscal risks and sustainability report; ONS projection figures are 2022-based and were published 28 January 2025; England activity figures cover 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025; unpaid care figures are for the census date of 21 March 2021. Projections are not forecasts and are subject to change.
How much care spending is projected to grow
Adult social care spending in the UK is projected to rise from 1.2% of GDP in 2030-31 to 1.8% of GDP by 2075-76 on the baseline projection, while health spending is projected to rise from about 8% to 13% of GDP over the same period (OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability, published 7 July 2026). The OBR notes social care spending is especially sensitive to ageing, because it is concentrated near the end of life.
| Spending (UK, share of GDP) | 2030-31 | 2075-76 (projected) |
|---|---|---|
| Adult social care | 1.2% | 1.8% |
| Health | 8% | 13% |
Source: OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability (published 7 July 2026), long-term baseline projections. The OBR assumes means-testing and eligibility rules continue to constrain adult social care costs; projections are not forecasts and are subject to change.
The demographic driver
The clearest single driver of future care demand is the growth of the oldest age group. Across the UK, the number of people aged 85 and over is projected to rise from 1.7 million in mid-2022 (about 2.5% of the population) to 3.3 million by mid-2047 (about 4.3%), close to a doubling, while the total population is projected to grow from 67.6 million to 76.6 million (ONS 2022-based national population projections, UK, published 28 January 2025).
| Measure (UK) | Mid-2022 | Mid-2047 (projected) |
|---|---|---|
| People aged 85 and over | 1.7 million | 3.3 million |
| Share aged 85 and over | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| Total UK population | 67.6 million | 76.6 million |
Source: ONS 2022-based national population projections, UK (published 28 January 2025). The people of pensionable age are separately projected to grow from 12.0 million in mid-2022 to 13.7 million by mid-2032. Projections assume current trends and are subject to change. For the wider picture, see our data page on the UK ageing population.
Care activity today
The baseline for any projection is how much care is arranged now. In England in 2024-25, local authorities received about 2.02 million requests for support from new clients, of which 1.30 million (66%) came from people aged 65 and over, and 672,000 people were receiving long-term support on 31 March 2025, up from 650,000 a year earlier (Adult social care activity report, England 2024-25, published 16 June 2026).
| Measure (England, 2024-25) | Figure | Of which aged 65+ |
|---|---|---|
| Requests for support from new clients | 2.02 million | 1.30 million (66%) |
| People receiving long-term support (31 March 2025) | 672,000 | 396,000 (59%) |
| People receiving long-term support (previous year) | 650,000 | n/a |
Source: Adult social care activity report, England 2024 to 2025 (NHS England, published 16 June 2026), covering 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025. A person can make more than one request in a year. Figures are for England only and are subject to change.
The scale of unpaid care
Much care is provided without pay. At Census 2021 an estimated 5.0 million usual residents aged 5 and over in England and Wales provided unpaid care, an age-standardised proportion of 9.0%, down from 11.4% in 2011, and about 1.5 million people provided 50 or more hours of unpaid care a week (ONS, Unpaid care, England and Wales, Census 2021, published 19 January 2023).
| Unpaid care (England & Wales) | 2011 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| People providing unpaid care (age-standardised) | 11.4% | 9.0% |
| Estimated number of unpaid carers | n/a | 5.0 million |
| Providing 50+ hours a week (age-standardised) | 2.7% | 2.8% |
Source: ONS, Unpaid care, England and Wales, Census 2021 (published 19 January 2023), census date 21 March 2021. The ONS notes the fall in the headline proportion partly reflects a change in question wording and the timing of the census during the pandemic. Figures cover England and Wales and are subject to change.
More years spent in poor health
How long people live in good health also shapes future care needs. In the UK in 2022 to 2024, healthy life expectancy at birth was 60.7 years for males and 60.9 years for females, the lowest since the series began in 2011 to 2013, even as overall life expectancy edged up (ONS, Health state life expectancies, UK, published 19 February 2026). On these figures, males could expect about 77% of life in good general health and females about 73%.
| Healthy life expectancy at birth (UK, 2022-2024) | Males | Females |
|---|---|---|
| Years in "good" general health | 60.7 years | 60.9 years |
| Share of life in "good" general health | 77% | 73% |
Source: ONS, Health state life expectancies, UK: between 2011 to 2013 and 2022 to 2024 (published 19 February 2026). Healthy life expectancy is based on self-reported general health. Figures are subject to change.
What the numbers mean
Read together, the figures describe rising future care demand meeting a system with tight eligibility and a tax framework whose thresholds are fixed. Adult social care spending is projected to grow faster than the economy (OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability, published 7 July 2026), while the population aged 85 and over is projected to almost double by 2047 (ONS 2022-based projections, published 28 January 2025).
Projections are not promises. They assume current trends and policy continue, they are revised at each release, and they say nothing about any single household. With that caveat, a few general observations tend to follow, and none of them is advice for your situation:
- More people are likely to meet care. A larger oldest-old group and falling healthy life expectancy point to more later-life years in which support may be needed. Local authority care is means-tested, so many families meet part or all of the cost themselves (gov.uk, paying for your care, as at July 2026, subject to change).
- Care fees planning, framed carefully. Steps that may help limit or mitigate the impact of care fees are one area some people discuss with a qualified adviser. Local authorities apply deprivation of assets rules, and deliberately giving away or reducing assets to lower a care assessment can be challenged, so this is not a route to deliberately avoid care fees (gov.uk, paying for your care, as at July 2026, subject to change).
- Unpaid carers carry much of the load. With around 5.0 million unpaid carers in England and Wales (ONS, Census 2021, published 19 January 2023), a lasting power of attorney can help a trusted person act if capacity is lost (gov.uk/power-of-attorney, as at July 2026, subject to change).
- Frozen thresholds, rising demand. The nil-rate band of £325,000 and residence nil-rate band of up to £175,000 are frozen to the end of the 2030-31 tax year (5 April 2031) (gov.uk/inheritance-tax, as at July 2026, subject to change; and the threshold freeze). Care costs can also draw down the assets a family expects to pass on.
For how these threads fit together, our estate planning guide explains how wills, trusts, powers of attorney and tax planning work as a whole, and our overview of Care Home Fees sets out how the funding rules and means test operate.
Projections describe the direction of travel for a whole country, not the path of any one family. They frame the questions worth asking; they do not answer them for you.
Care demand across the UK
The OBR spending projections and ONS population projections on this page are UK-wide, while the activity data is for England and the unpaid care figures are for England and Wales (Adult social care activity report, England 2024-25, published 16 June 2026). Social care funding rules differ by nation.
This article describes the law of England and Wales. Scotland runs its own social care system, including some free personal and nursing care for those assessed as needing it, and has its own succession law and confirmation process rather than probate. Northern Ireland operates health and social care together through separate arrangements. Where an estate or a care question touches more than one jurisdiction, it can be worth taking advice in each.
Sources and methodology
Every statistic on this page comes from a named official source and was checked against the live publication. Long-term spending figures are OBR baseline projections; population figures are ONS 2022-based projections; England activity figures are NHS England statistics; unpaid care and healthy life expectancy figures are ONS releases. Projections summarise assumed trends and do not forecast any individual's circumstances.
- OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026 (published 7 July 2026): adult social care spending 1.2% of GDP in 2030-31 rising to 1.8% by 2075-76, and health spending rising from about 8% to 13% of GDP. obr.uk
- ONS 2022-based national population projections, UK (published 28 January 2025): population aged 85 and over, and total population, mid-2022 and mid-2047. ons.gov.uk
- Adult social care activity report, England 2024 to 2025 (NHS England, published 16 June 2026): requests for support from new clients and people receiving long-term support. gov.uk
- ONS, Unpaid care, England and Wales: Census 2021 (published 19 January 2023): number and proportion providing unpaid care, and intensive (50+ hours) care. ons.gov.uk
- ONS, Health state life expectancies, UK: between 2011 to 2013 and 2022 to 2024 (published 19 February 2026): healthy life expectancy at birth by sex. ons.gov.uk
- gov.uk, paying for your care, power of attorney and Inheritance Tax (as at July 2026, subject to change): means-testing and deprivation of assets, lasting powers of attorney, and IHT thresholds. gov.uk/paying-for-your-care, gov.uk/power-of-attorney and gov.uk/inheritance-tax.
Frequently asked questions
How much is UK care spending projected to rise?
On the baseline projection, adult social care spending in the UK is projected to rise from 1.2% of GDP in 2030-31 to 1.8% of GDP by 2075-76, with health spending rising from about 8% to 13% over the same period (OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability, published 7 July 2026). These are long-term projections, not forecasts, and are subject to change.
Why is future care demand expected to grow?
The main driver is an ageing population. The number of UK residents aged 85 and over is projected to rise from 1.7 million in mid-2022 to 3.3 million by mid-2047, close to a doubling (ONS 2022-based projections, published 28 January 2025). Falling healthy life expectancy can add to the number of later-life years in which support may be needed.
How many people already receive social care in England?
In 2024-25, local authorities in England received about 2.02 million requests for support from new clients, and 672,000 people were receiving long-term support on 31 March 2025, up from 650,000 a year earlier (Adult social care activity report, England 2024-25, published 16 June 2026). These figures are for England only and are subject to change.
How many unpaid carers are there in the UK?
At Census 2021 an estimated 5.0 million people in England and Wales provided unpaid care, an age-standardised 9.0%, down from 11.4% in 2011, with about 1.5 million providing 50 or more hours a week (ONS, Unpaid care, Census 2021, published 19 January 2023). Scotland and Northern Ireland ran separate censuses. Figures are subject to change.
Does the state pay for care in the UK?
Local authority social care in England is means-tested, so many people meet part or all of the cost of care themselves, depending on their assets and needs (gov.uk, paying for your care, as at July 2026, subject to change). Scotland provides some free personal and nursing care for those assessed as eligible. The rules differ by nation and can change.
Can planning limit the impact of care fees?
Some people discuss steps that may help limit or mitigate the impact of care fees with a qualified adviser, but there are no guarantees. Local authorities apply deprivation of assets rules, and deliberately giving away assets to reduce a care assessment can be challenged, so this is not a way to deliberately avoid care fees (gov.uk, paying for your care, as at July 2026, subject to change). Our Care Home Fees guide explains the funding rules.